In Minnesota, the Weather has been very warm leading to our winter 2012 season.  We are in the end of fall 2012, and are finding nearly normal temperatures, hovering around freezing, and above.  Up until Thanksgiving of 2012, November 22, 2012 started the day at 58 degrees in the Minneapolis St. Paul Area, with an expected downturn in the evening reaching close to 15-20 degrees by the morning of November 23rd.

Winter 2012 Shows a Start of Normal Temperatures

The real system that is keeping temperatures warmer this fall in the mid-west, or in the middle of the United States, is the low pressure systems that sat in Canada, and throughout the oceans in north America.  The systems kept the warm waters close to the gulf of mexico, and around the east coast.  The high pressure that prevailed throughout September, October and Early November created a system of warm and dry weather throughout early winter 2012.

With persistent lack of systems rolling across the midwest, drought conditions have as well continued, and a real emergency will unfold in the spring along the Ohio and Missouri River Valley if conditions persist.  Army core of engineers have kept the cisterns along the Mississippi closed, to allow farmers water and ways to utilize this well of water.  However, with the current drought, we have seen them use the accumulated water now for municipal and other uses.  Valley Barge traffic will see lower river levels as we head into winter 2012.

Winter 2012 Forecast and Predictions

Why is it so important to note the low pressure disappearance, and the warm currents producing high pressure system throughout the end of fall 2012 going into winter 2012?  Mostly it is a predictor of dry and persistent drought.  The soil can be increasingly slighted by long term drought and dry weather, as the enzymes and bacteria that create the ecosystem of the soil are dormant.  The easier it is to predict weather patterns with a dry soil and surface expectation.

Being so involved in a drought this summer of 2012, we are experiencing the first real effect of a potential loss of soil erosion.  With drought and dry conditions, our small top soil layer is increasingly at risk.  Many farmers and soil conservation experts in Minnesota and Wisconsin are advising areas hard hit, to leave corn husks and soybean areas covered to continue protection.  Many new species of worm and pest have evolved with this new dry condition, and are showing signs of evolution.

GM Seeds produce Adaption before the Winter of 2012

With the advent of Genetically Modified seeds or GM seeds, the american farmer was given no opportunity to choose otherwise, and the race for less pesticide was on.  However, as the dawn of winter 2012 continues, we see the new pest revival begun.  More insecticide is being used, as the  pests have adapted to the new seeds, and find the plants just fine to dine upon.  With many farmers losing over $25K in one field alone, pesticides in the form of insecticide are seeing a resurgence.  Such is the manner of nature, as we cannot simplify a complex system, and expect to understand and control for long.

Winter 2012 looks to be normal this year, and dry, but as the various forms of rootworm have shown Minnesota farmers, we can never predict a complex system entirely, as their are always small variances that we do not understand.  With beginning models forecasting winter 2012 being temperate and dry, we can expect some surprises none the less.